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FAR Rabat vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
11/6/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 6Stade Olympique de Rabat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FAR Rabat44%
×Draw28%
FUS Rabat28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.32
FUS Rabat
0.98

FAR Rabat creates 35% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.62
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.86
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
72%
FAR Rabat or FUS Rabat
72%
Draw or FUS Rabat
56%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
21%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
73%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
15%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
62%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
26%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
62%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.62 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.32

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + FAR Rabat defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
44%
level
28%
FUS Rabat scores more
28%

FAR Rabat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs FUS Rabat

FAR Rabat beat FUS Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on November 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Rabat in Rabat.