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FAR Rabat vs FUS Rabat — Cup 2020

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabatadvanced
N. Avous 15'
5/13/2023CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Prince Moulay Abdallah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FAR Rabat28%
×Draw26%
FUS Rabat46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.10
FUS Rabat
1.50

FUS Rabat creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.71
FUS Rabat
2.00

allows per match

FAR Rabat
1.00
FUS Rabat
0.50

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
54%
FAR Rabat or FUS Rabat
74%
Draw or FUS Rabat
72%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
11%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
67%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
30%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
10%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
78%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
44%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
37%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.71 + FUS Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

FUS Rabat attack 2.00 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
28%
level
26%
FUS Rabat scores more
46%

FUS Rabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
N. Avous

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs FUS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat FAR Rabat 1-0 in Cup on May 13, 2023.

Goals: N. Avous (15').

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah in Rabat.