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FAR Rabat vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
3 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
2/9/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 17Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FAR Rabat63%
×Draw23%
Chabab RIF Hoceima14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.77
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.70

FAR Rabat creates 153% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.62
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.86
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
86%
FAR Rabat or Chabab RIF Hoceima
77%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
37%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
37%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
83%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
53%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
50%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
16%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
81%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.62 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + FAR Rabat defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
63%
level
23%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
14%

FAR Rabat at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

FAR Rabat beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 3-0 in Botola Pro on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat).