Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FAR Rabat vs Al Merreikh — CAF Champions League 2019

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
J. Beya 61'
A. Hammoudan 44'
9/22/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat68%
×Draw21%
Al Merreikh11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.89
Al Merreikh
0.60

FAR Rabat creates 215% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.88
Al Merreikh
0.70

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.50
Al Merreikh
1.90

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
89%
FAR Rabat or Al Merreikh
79%
Draw or Al Merreikh
32%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
42%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
85%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
56%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
29%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
45%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
12%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
86%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Al Merreikh defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.89

Al Merreikh attack 0.70 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
68%
level
21%
Al Merreikh scores more
11%

FAR Rabat at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
A. Hammoudan
61'
J. Beya
FAR
Al
C. Michniewicz
Manager: C. Michniewicz
G. Solinas
Manager: G. Solinas

CAF Champions League: FAR Rabat 2–0 Al Merreikh

FAR Rabat beat Al Merreikh 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 22, 2024.

Goals: A. Hammoudan (44'), J. Beya (61').

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan in Rabat.