FAP 1–1 Union Abong-Mbang: Result & Stats

FAP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Union Abong-Mbang

12/28/2024

Elite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FAP48%

×Draw28%

Union Abong-Mbang24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAPExpected goals in this matchUnion Abong-Mbang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.86

FAP

1.33

Union Abong-Mbang

0.86

FAP creates 55% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 20 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

0.78

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FAP

1.32

Union Abong-Mbang

0.95

allows per match

FAP

0.78

Union Abong-Mbang

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAP+0.00on par

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Union Abong-Mbang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FAP or draw

76%

FAP or Union Abong-Mbang

72%

Draw or Union Abong-Mbang

52%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+

22%

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals

74%

FAP 2+ goals

38%

FAP 3+ goals

15%

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals

58%

Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals

21%

Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)

66%

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Union Abong-Mbang away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Union Abong-Mbang attack 0.95 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FAP scores more

48%

level

28%

Union Abong-Mbang scores more

24%

FAP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff