Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FAP vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
CANC
00:00
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
6/28/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FAP51%
×Draw28%
Stade de Bertoua21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.35
Stade de Bertoua
0.75

FAP creates 80% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 18 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FAP or draw
79%
FAP or Stade de Bertoua
72%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
49%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
25%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
74%
FAP 2+ goals
39%
FAP 3+ goals
15%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
53%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
17%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
71%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FAP scores more
51%
level
28%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
21%

FAP at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FAP host Stade de Bertoua

June 28, 2022: FAP take on Stade de Bertoua in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.