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FAP vs Renaissance — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
2 – 0
Renaissance
Renaissance
4/2/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FAP52%
×Draw27%
Renaissance21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.41
Renaissance
0.79

FAP creates 78% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 14 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Renaissance
0.79

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Renaissance
1.50

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FAP or draw
79%
FAP or Renaissance
73%
Draw or Renaissance
48%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
26%
Renaissance wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
76%
FAP 2+ goals
41%
FAP 3+ goals
17%
Renaissance 1+ goals
55%
Renaissance 2+ goals
19%
Renaissance 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
71%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Renaissance defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Renaissance attack 0.79 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FAP scores more
52%
level
27%
Renaissance scores more
21%

FAP at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs Renaissance

FAP beat Renaissance 2-0 in Elite Two on April 2, 2021.