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FAP vs OFTA — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
4 – 0
OFTA
OFTA
5/13/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FAP54%
×Draw27%
OFTA18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.41
OFTA
0.69

FAP creates 104% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 20 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
OFTA
0.60

allows per match

FAP
0.78
OFTA
1.50

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

OFTA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FAP or draw
82%
FAP or OFTA
73%
Draw or OFTA
46%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
27%
OFTA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
76%
FAP 2+ goals
41%
FAP 3+ goals
17%
OFTA 1+ goals
50%
OFTA 2+ goals
15%
OFTA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
75%
OFTA (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + OFTA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

OFTA attack 0.60 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FAP scores more
54%
level
27%
OFTA scores more
18%

FAP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs OFTA

FAP beat OFTA 4-0 in Elite Two on May 13, 2023.