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FAP vs Matelots — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
CANC
00:00
Matelots
Matelots
4/30/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FAP69%
×Draw19%
Matelots12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
2.08
Matelots
0.73

FAP creates 185% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 6 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Matelots
0.67

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Matelots
2.83

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Matelots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FAP or draw
88%
FAP or Matelots
81%
Draw or Matelots
31%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
44%
Matelots wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
87%
FAP 2+ goals
61%
FAP 3+ goals
34%
Matelots 1+ goals
52%
Matelots 2+ goals
17%
Matelots 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
85%
Matelots (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Matelots attack 0.67 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FAP scores more
69%
level
19%
Matelots scores more
12%

FAP at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FAP face Matelots (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with FAP hosting Matelots. Match starts April 30, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.