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FAP vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
CANC
00:00
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
5/21/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FAP58%
×Draw25%
Leopard de Douala17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.57
Leopard de Douala
0.71

FAP creates 121% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 28 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FAP or draw
83%
FAP or Leopard de Douala
75%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
42%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
31%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
79%
FAP 2+ goals
46%
FAP 3+ goals
21%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
51%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
16%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
78%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FAP scores more
58%
level
25%
Leopard de Douala scores more
17%

FAP at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FAP host Leopard de Douala

May 21, 2022: FAP take on Leopard de Douala in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.