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FAP vs Eding Sport — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
1 – 3
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
2/8/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FAP47%
×Draw29%
Eding Sport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.29
Eding Sport
0.85

FAP creates 52% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 28 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Eding Sport
0.93

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Eding Sport
1.25

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FAP or draw
75%
FAP or Eding Sport
71%
Draw or Eding Sport
53%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
22%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
72%
FAP 2+ goals
37%
FAP 3+ goals
14%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
57%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
21%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
66%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FAP scores more
47%
level
29%
Eding Sport scores more
25%

FAP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs Eding Sport

Eding Sport beat FAP 3-1 in Elite Two on February 8, 2025.