FAP 3–1 Borac Cacak: Result & Stats

FAP

FT

3 – 1

Borac Cacak

10/7/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 8Stadion Priboj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FAP47%

×Draw25%

Borac Cacak28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAPExpected goals in this matchBorac Cacak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.18

FAP

1.59

Borac Cacak

1.18

FAP creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 54 away

2.20

creates per match

1.78

0.58

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

FAP

2.20

Borac Cacak

1.78

allows per match

FAP

0.58

Borac Cacak

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAP+0.00on par

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Borac Cacak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FAP or draw

72%

FAP or Borac Cacak

75%

Draw or Borac Cacak

53%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+

24%

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals

80%

FAP 2+ goals

47%

FAP 3+ goals

21%

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

69%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

33%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)

62%

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 2.20 + Borac Cacak defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

Borac Cacak attack 1.78 + FAP defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FAP scores more

47%

level

25%

Borac Cacak scores more

28%

FAP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff