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FAP vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
Unknown 85', 23'
C. Loibinho 87'
E. Allo 45+2'
D. Che 2'
1/11/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FAP49%
×Draw27%
Bafmeng United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.43
Bafmeng United
0.91

FAP creates 57% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FAP or draw
76%
FAP or Bafmeng United
73%
Draw or Bafmeng United
51%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
24%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
76%
FAP 2+ goals
42%
FAP 3+ goals
17%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
60%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
23%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
67%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FAP scores more
49%
level
27%
Bafmeng United scores more
24%

FAP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
D. Che
23'
45+2'
E. Allo
85'
87'
C. Loibinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs Bafmeng United

Bafmeng United beat FAP 3-2 in Elite Two on January 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Che (2'), ? (23', 85'), E. Allo (45+2'), C. Loibinho (87').