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FAP vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
3/8/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FAP35%
×Draw27%
APEJES Academy38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.21
APEJES Academy
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 20 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

FAP
0.78
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FAP or draw
62%
FAP or APEJES Academy
73%
Draw or APEJES Academy
65%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
15%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
70%
FAP 2+ goals
34%
FAP 3+ goals
12%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
72%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
37%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
47%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FAP scores more
35%
level
27%
APEJES Academy scores more
38%

APEJES Academy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs APEJES Academy

FAP and APEJES Academy drew 0-0 in Elite Two on March 8, 2026.