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FAP vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
3/5/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FAP40%
×Draw27%
Aigle Royal de Moungo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.34
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.21

FAP creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 22 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.64

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.36

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FAP or draw
66%
FAP or Aigle Royal de Moungo
73%
Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo
60%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
18%
Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
74%
FAP 2+ goals
39%
FAP 3+ goals
15%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
70%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
34%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
54%
Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.64 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FAP scores more
40%
level
27%
Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
34%

FAP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs Aigle Royal de Moungo

Aigle Royal de Moungo beat FAP 2-0 in Elite Two on March 5, 2023.