Fanna BK 0–2 Karlberg: Result & Stats

Fanna BK

FT

0 – 2

Karlberg

9/19/2020

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 9Fanna IP B-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fanna BK19%

×Draw20%

Karlberg62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fanna BKExpected goals in this matchKarlberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.27

Fanna BK

1.18

Karlberg

2.27

Karlberg creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 48 away

1.33

creates per match

1.88

2.67

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Fanna BK

1.33

Karlberg

1.88

allows per match

Fanna BK

2.67

Karlberg

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fanna BK+0.00on par

Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fanna BK ↓

Karlberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fanna BK or draw

38%

Fanna BK or Karlberg

80%

Draw or Karlberg

81%

Winning margin

Fanna BK wins by 2+

7%

Karlberg wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Fanna BK 1+ goals

69%

Fanna BK 2+ goals

33%

Fanna BK 3+ goals

12%

Karlberg 1+ goals

90%

Karlberg 2+ goals

66%

Karlberg 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Fanna BK (draw refunded)

23%

Karlberg (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fanna BK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Karlberg away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fanna BK attack 1.33 + Karlberg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Karlberg attack 1.88 + Fanna BK defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fanna BK scores more

19%

level

20%

Karlberg scores more

62%

Karlberg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff