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Fanna BK vs IFK Österåker — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Fanna BK
Fanna BK
FT
1 – 3
IFK Österåker
IFK Österåker
8/8/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 3Fanna IP B-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fanna BK28%
×Draw21%
IFK Österåker51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fanna BK
1.57
IFK Österåker
2.14

IFK Österåker creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 72 away

creates per match

Fanna BK
1.33
IFK Österåker
1.61

allows per match

Fanna BK
2.67
IFK Österåker
1.81

finishing

Fanna BK+0.00on par
IFK Österåker+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fanna BK ↓

IFK Österåker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fanna BK or draw
49%
Fanna BK or IFK Österåker
79%
Draw or IFK Österåker
72%

Winning margin

Fanna BK wins by 2+
13%
IFK Österåker wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fanna BK 1+ goals
79%
Fanna BK 2+ goals
46%
Fanna BK 3+ goals
21%
IFK Österåker 1+ goals
88%
IFK Österåker 2+ goals
63%
IFK Österåker 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Fanna BK (draw refunded)
36%
IFK Österåker (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fanna BK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

IFK Österåker away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.81 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fanna BK attack 1.33 + IFK Österåker defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

IFK Österåker attack 1.61 + Fanna BK defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fanna BK scores more
28%
level
21%
IFK Österåker scores more
51%

IFK Österåker at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IFK Österåker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Fanna BK 1–3 IFK Österåker

IFK Österåker beat Fanna BK 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Fanna IP B-plan in Enköping.