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Fanja vs Oman Club — Professional League 2019

Fanja
Fanja
FT
2 – 2
Oman Club
Oman Club
2/14/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 19Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fanja40%
×Draw25%
Oman Club35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fanja
1.52
Oman Club
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 79 away

creates per match

Fanja
1.92
Oman Club
1.04

allows per match

Fanja
1.77
Oman Club
1.13

finishing

Fanja+0.00on par
Oman Club+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fanja ↓

Oman Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fanja or draw
65%
Fanja or Oman Club
75%
Draw or Oman Club
60%

Winning margin

Fanja wins by 2+
20%
Oman Club wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fanja 1+ goals
78%
Fanja 2+ goals
45%
Fanja 3+ goals
20%
Oman Club 1+ goals
76%
Oman Club 2+ goals
41%
Oman Club 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fanja (draw refunded)
53%
Oman Club (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fanja at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Oman Club away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fanja attack 1.92 + Oman Club defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oman Club attack 1.04 + Fanja defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fanja scores more
40%
level
25%
Oman Club scores more
35%

Fanja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fanja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Fanja 2–2 Oman Club

Fanja and Oman Club drew 2-2 in Professional League on February 14, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.