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Fanja vs Muscat — Professional League 2019

Fanja
Fanja
FT
3 – 2
Muscat
Muscat
1/24/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 16Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fanja46%
×Draw24%
Muscat30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fanja
1.69
Muscat
1.32

Fanja creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fanja
1.92
Muscat
0.87

allows per match

Fanja
1.77
Muscat
1.47

finishing

Fanja+0.00on par
Muscat+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fanja ↓

Muscat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fanja or draw
70%
Fanja or Muscat
76%
Draw or Muscat
54%

Winning margin

Fanja wins by 2+
24%
Muscat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fanja 1+ goals
82%
Fanja 2+ goals
50%
Fanja 3+ goals
24%
Muscat 1+ goals
73%
Muscat 2+ goals
38%
Muscat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fanja (draw refunded)
61%
Muscat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fanja at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Muscat away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fanja attack 1.92 + Muscat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Muscat attack 0.87 + Fanja defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fanja scores more
46%
level
24%
Muscat scores more
30%

Fanja at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fanja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fanja 3 – 2 Muscat

Fanja beat Muscat 3-2 in Professional League on January 24, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.