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Fanja vs Dhofar — Professional League 2019

Fanja
Fanja
FT
1 – 3
Dhofar
Dhofar
1/3/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 14Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fanja37%
×Draw25%
Dhofar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fanja
1.42
Dhofar
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 69 away

creates per match

Fanja
1.92
Dhofar
1.07

allows per match

Fanja
1.77
Dhofar
0.91

finishing

Fanja+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fanja ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fanja or draw
63%
Fanja or Dhofar
75%
Draw or Dhofar
63%

Winning margin

Fanja wins by 2+
17%
Dhofar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fanja 1+ goals
76%
Fanja 2+ goals
41%
Fanja 3+ goals
17%
Dhofar 1+ goals
76%
Dhofar 2+ goals
41%
Dhofar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fanja (draw refunded)
50%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fanja at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fanja attack 1.92 + Dhofar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dhofar attack 1.07 + Fanja defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fanja scores more
37%
level
25%
Dhofar scores more
37%

Fanja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fanja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Fanja 1–3 Dhofar

Dhofar beat Fanja 3-1 in Professional League on January 3, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.