Fanja 2–2 Al Suwaiq: Result & Stats

Fanja

FT

2 – 2

Al Suwaiq

3/13/2020

Professional League · Round 23Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fanja42%

×Draw24%

Al Suwaiq34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FanjaExpected goals in this matchAl Suwaiq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.40

Fanja

1.57

Al Suwaiq

1.40

Fanja creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 43 away

1.92

creates per match

1.02

1.77

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Fanja

1.92

Al Suwaiq

1.02

allows per match

Fanja

1.77

Al Suwaiq

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fanja+0.00on par

Al Suwaiq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fanja ↓

Al Suwaiq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fanja or draw

66%

Fanja or Al Suwaiq

76%

Draw or Al Suwaiq

58%

Winning margin

Fanja wins by 2+

21%

Al Suwaiq wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fanja 1+ goals

79%

Fanja 2+ goals

46%

Fanja 3+ goals

21%

Al Suwaiq 1+ goals

75%

Al Suwaiq 2+ goals

41%

Al Suwaiq 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fanja (draw refunded)

55%

Al Suwaiq (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fanja at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Al Suwaiq away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fanja attack 1.92 + Al Suwaiq defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Al Suwaiq attack 1.02 + Fanja defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fanja scores more

42%

level

24%

Al Suwaiq scores more

34%

Fanja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fanja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff