Fana 2–1 Fyllingsdalen: Result & Stats

Fana

FT

2 – 1

Fyllingsdalen

10/2/2021

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 9Nesttun Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fana60%

×Draw19%

Fyllingsdalen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FanaExpected goals in this matchFyllingsdalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.45

Fana

2.53

Fyllingsdalen

1.45

Fana creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

2.95

creates per match

1.90

1.00

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Fana

2.95

Fyllingsdalen

1.90

allows per match

Fana

1.00

Fyllingsdalen

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fana+0.00on par

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fana ↓

Fyllingsdalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Fana or draw

79%

Fana or Fyllingsdalen

81%

Draw or Fyllingsdalen

40%

Winning margin

Fana wins by 2+

39%

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fana 1+ goals

92%

Fana 2+ goals

71%

Fana 3+ goals

46%

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals

77%

Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals

42%

Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fana (draw refunded)

74%

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fana at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fana attack 2.95 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.53

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.90 + Fana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fana scores more

60%

level

19%

Fyllingsdalen scores more

21%

Fana at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff