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Fana vs Floro — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Fana
Fana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Floro
Floro
8/24/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 18Nesttun Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fana78%
×Draw13%
Floro9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fana
3.25
Floro
1.09

Fana creates 198% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fana
2.73
Floro
0.77

allows per match

Fana
1.42
Floro
3.77

finishing

Fana+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fana ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Fana or draw
91%
Fana or Floro
87%
Draw or Floro
22%

Winning margin

Fana wins by 2+
59%
Floro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fana 1+ goals
96%
Fana 2+ goals
83%
Fana 3+ goals
61%
Floro 1+ goals
66%
Floro 2+ goals
30%
Floro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fana (draw refunded)
89%
Floro (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fana at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Floro away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fana attack 2.73 + Floro defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 3.25

Floro attack 0.77 + Fana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Fana scores more
78%
level
13%
Floro scores more
9%

Fana at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Fana 2–0 Floro

Fana beat Floro 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nesttun Kunstgress in Bergen.