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Famos Vojkovići vs Slavija — 1st League - RS 2019

Famos Vojkovići
Famos Vojkovići
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slavija
Slavija
11/5/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion u centru Vojkovića

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Famos Vojkovići57%
×Draw24%
Slavija19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famos Vojkovići
1.66
Slavija
0.83

Famos Vojkovići creates 100% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 103 away

creates per match

Famos Vojkovići
1.71
Slavija
0.90

allows per match

Famos Vojkovići
0.76
Slavija
1.60

finishing

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par
Slavija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famos Vojkovići ↓

Slavija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Famos Vojkovići or draw
81%
Famos Vojkovići or Slavija
76%
Draw or Slavija
43%

Winning margin

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+
31%
Slavija wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals
81%
Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals
49%
Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals
23%
Slavija 1+ goals
56%
Slavija 2+ goals
20%
Slavija 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)
75%
Slavija (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famos Vojkovići at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

Slavija away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famos Vojkovići attack 1.71 + Slavija defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Slavija attack 0.90 + Famos Vojkovići defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Famos Vojkovići scores more
57%
level
24%
Slavija scores more
19%

Famos Vojkovići at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Famos Vojkovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famos Vojkovići vs Slavija

Famos Vojkovići beat Slavija 2-0 in 1st League - RS on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u centru Vojkovića in Istočno Sarajevo.