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Famos Vojkovići vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Famos Vojkovići
Famos Vojkovići
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Modriča
Modriča
5/18/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 32Stadion u centru Vojkovića

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Famos Vojkovići67%
×Draw20%
Modriča13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famos Vojkovići
2.02
Modriča
0.73

Famos Vojkovići creates 177% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 71 away

creates per match

Famos Vojkovići
1.71
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Famos Vojkovići
0.76
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famos Vojkovići ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Famos Vojkovići or draw
87%
Famos Vojkovići or Modriča
80%
Draw or Modriča
33%

Winning margin

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+
42%
Modriča wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals
87%
Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals
60%
Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals
33%
Modriča 1+ goals
52%
Modriča 2+ goals
17%
Modriča 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)
84%
Modriča (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famos Vojkovići at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famos Vojkovići attack 1.71 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.02

Modriča attack 0.70 + Famos Vojkovići defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Famos Vojkovići scores more
67%
level
20%
Modriča scores more
13%

Famos Vojkovići at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Famos Vojkovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Famos Vojkovići 1–1 Modriča

Famos Vojkovići and Modriča drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u centru Vojkovića in Istočno Sarajevo.