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Famos Vojkovići vs Krupa na Vrbasu — 1st League - RS 2019

Famos Vojkovići
Famos Vojkovići
FT
0 – 1
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
10/15/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 13Stadion FK Famos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Famos Vojkovići34%
×Draw27%
Krupa na Vrbasu39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famos Vojkovići
1.18
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 39 away

creates per match

Famos Vojkovići
1.71
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.79

allows per match

Famos Vojkovići
0.76
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.64

finishing

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famos Vojkovići ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Famos Vojkovići or draw
61%
Famos Vojkovići or Krupa na Vrbasu
73%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
66%

Winning margin

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+
14%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals
69%
Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals
33%
Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals
12%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
72%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
36%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)
47%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famos Vojkovići at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famos Vojkovići attack 1.71 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.18

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Famos Vojkovići defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Famos Vojkovići scores more
34%
level
27%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
39%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famos Vojkovići vs Krupa na Vrbasu

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Famos Vojkovići 1-0 in 1st League - RS on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Famos in Hrasnica.