Famalicão W 1–3 SL Benfica W: Result & Stats

Famalicão W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

SL Benfica W

1/26/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 14Complexo Desportivo FC Famalicão - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Famalicão W15%

×Draw18%

SL Benfica W68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Famalicão WExpected goals in this matchSL Benfica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.48

Famalicão W

1.06

SL Benfica W

2.48

SL Benfica W creates 134% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

1.61

creates per match

3.10

1.85

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Famalicão W

1.61

SL Benfica W

3.10

allows per match

Famalicão W

1.85

SL Benfica W

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Famalicão W+0.00on par

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicão W ↓

SL Benfica W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Famalicão W or draw

32%

Famalicão W or SL Benfica W

82%

Draw or SL Benfica W

85%

Winning margin

Famalicão W wins by 2+

5%

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Famalicão W 1+ goals

65%

Famalicão W 2+ goals

29%

Famalicão W 3+ goals

9%

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

92%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

70%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Famalicão W (draw refunded)

18%

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicão W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

SL Benfica W away — creates 3.10, concedes 0.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicão W attack 1.61 + SL Benfica W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

SL Benfica W attack 3.10 + Famalicão W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Famalicão W scores more

15%

level

18%

SL Benfica W scores more

68%

SL Benfica W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff