Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Famalicao vs Dumiense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Famalicao
Famalicao
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Dumiense
Dumiense
11/9/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Famalicao68%
×Draw16%
Dumiense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicao
3.00
Dumiense
1.43

Famalicao creates 110% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Famalicao
2.00
Dumiense
2.00

allows per match

Famalicao
0.86
Dumiense
4.00

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par
Dumiense+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Dumiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw
84%
Famalicao or Dumiense
84%
Draw or Dumiense
32%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+
48%
Dumiense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals
95%
Famalicao 2+ goals
79%
Famalicao 3+ goals
56%
Dumiense 1+ goals
76%
Dumiense 2+ goals
42%
Dumiense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)
81%
Dumiense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Dumiense away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 2.00 + Dumiense defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Dumiense attack 2.00 + Famalicao defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Famalicao scores more
68%
level
16%
Dumiense scores more
16%

Famalicao at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Famalicao 4–1 Dumiense

Famalicao beat Dumiense 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.