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Famalicao vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Famalicao
Famalicao
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
5/8/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 31Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Famalicao51%
×Draw26%
Chaves23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicao
1.52
Chaves
0.94

Famalicao creates 62% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

creates per match

Famalicao
1.33
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Famalicao
1.13
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw
77%
Famalicao or Chaves
74%
Draw or Chaves
49%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+
26%
Chaves wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals
78%
Famalicao 2+ goals
45%
Famalicao 3+ goals
20%
Chaves 1+ goals
61%
Chaves 2+ goals
24%
Chaves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)
68%
Chaves (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.33 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chaves attack 0.75 + Famalicao defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Famalicao scores more
51%
level
26%
Chaves scores more
23%

Famalicao at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famalicao vs Chaves

Chaves beat Famalicao 2-1 in Primeira Liga on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.