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Famalicao vs Belenenses — Taça de Portugal 2018

Famalicao
Famalicaoadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
2/8/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Famalicao45%
×Draw24%
Belenenses31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicao
1.70
Belenenses
1.38

Famalicao creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Famalicao
2.00
Belenenses
1.90

allows per match

Famalicao
0.86
Belenenses
1.40

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw
69%
Famalicao or Belenenses
76%
Draw or Belenenses
55%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+
24%
Belenenses wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals
82%
Famalicao 2+ goals
51%
Famalicao 3+ goals
24%
Belenenses 1+ goals
75%
Belenenses 2+ goals
40%
Belenenses 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)
59%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 2.00 + Belenenses defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Belenenses attack 1.90 + Famalicao defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Famalicao scores more
45%
level
24%
Belenenses scores more
31%

Famalicao at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famalicao vs Belenenses

Famalicao beat Belenenses 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on February 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.