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Famalicao vs Arouca — Primeira Liga 2018

Famalicao
Famalicao
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arouca
Arouca
11/9/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 11Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Famalicao57%
×Draw24%
Arouca19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicao
1.69
Arouca
0.87

Famalicao creates 94% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Famalicao
1.51
Arouca
0.87

allows per match

Famalicao
0.87
Arouca
1.87

finishing

Famalicao+0.16scores more
Arouca+0.13scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw
81%
Famalicao or Arouca
76%
Draw or Arouca
43%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+
31%
Arouca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals
82%
Famalicao 2+ goals
50%
Famalicao 3+ goals
24%
Arouca 1+ goals
58%
Arouca 2+ goals
22%
Arouca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)
75%
Arouca (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 18 matches

Arouca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.51 + Arouca defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Arouca attack 0.87 + Famalicao defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Famalicao scores more
57%
level
24%
Arouca scores more
19%

Famalicao at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Famalicao 0–0 Arouca

Famalicao and Arouca drew 0-0 in Primeira Liga on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.