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Famalicão U23 vs Benfica U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Famalicão U23
Famalicão U23
FT
2 – 3
Benfica U23
Benfica U23
5/6/2023Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 1Estádio de Barreiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Famalicão U2335%
×Draw23%
Benfica U2341%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicão U23
1.52
Benfica U23
1.67

Benfica U23 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Famalicão U23
1.55
Benfica U23
1.70

allows per match

Famalicão U23
1.64
Benfica U23
1.50

finishing

Famalicão U23+0.00on par
Benfica U23+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicão U23 ↓

Benfica U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Famalicão U23 or draw
59%
Famalicão U23 or Benfica U23
77%
Draw or Benfica U23
65%

Winning margin

Famalicão U23 wins by 2+
17%
Benfica U23 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Famalicão U23 1+ goals
78%
Famalicão U23 2+ goals
45%
Famalicão U23 3+ goals
20%
Benfica U23 1+ goals
81%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
50%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Famalicão U23 (draw refunded)
46%
Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicão U23 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Benfica U23 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicão U23 attack 1.55 + Benfica U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Benfica U23 attack 1.70 + Famalicão U23 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Famalicão U23 scores more
35%
level
23%
Benfica U23 scores more
41%

Benfica U23 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famalicão U23 vs Benfica U23

Benfica U23 beat Famalicão U23 3-2 in Taça Revelação U23 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de Barreiros in Joane.