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Benfica U23 vs Famalicão U23 — League #701 2026

Benfica U23
Benfica U23
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Famalicão U23
Famalicão U23
3/5/2025League #701League #701 · Championship Round - 8Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Benfica U2335%
×Draw24%
Famalicão U2340%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica U23
1.42
Famalicão U23
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Benfica U23
1.38
Famalicão U23
1.77

allows per match

Benfica U23
1.31
Famalicão U23
1.46

finishing

Benfica U23+0.00on par
Famalicão U23+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U23 ↓

Famalicão U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Benfica U23 or draw
60%
Benfica U23 or Famalicão U23
76%
Draw or Famalicão U23
65%

Winning margin

Benfica U23 wins by 2+
16%
Famalicão U23 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Benfica U23 1+ goals
76%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
41%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
17%
Famalicão U23 1+ goals
79%
Famalicão U23 2+ goals
45%
Famalicão U23 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
47%
Famalicão U23 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U23 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Famalicão U23 away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U23 attack 1.38 + Famalicão U23 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Famalicão U23 attack 1.77 + Benfica U23 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Benfica U23 scores more
35%
level
24%
Famalicão U23 scores more
40%

Famalicão U23 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Famalicão U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #701: Benfica U23 1–0 Famalicão U23

Benfica U23 beat Famalicão U23 1-0 in League #701 on March 5, 2025.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.