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Famalicão U19 vs Feirense U19 — League #1041 2026

Famalicão U19
Famalicão U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Feirense U19
Feirense U19
Unknown 60', 53', 24'
3/8/2025League #1041League #1041 · Relegation Round - 6Campo N 1 Academia FC Famalicão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Famalicão U1951%
×Draw24%
Feirense U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicão U19
1.75
Feirense U19
1.17

Famalicão U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Famalicão U19
2.17
Feirense U19
1.33

allows per match

Famalicão U19
1.00
Feirense U19
1.33

finishing

Famalicão U19+0.00on par
Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicão U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Famalicão U19 or draw
74%
Famalicão U19 or Feirense U19
76%
Draw or Feirense U19
49%

Winning margin

Famalicão U19 wins by 2+
28%
Feirense U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Famalicão U19 1+ goals
83%
Famalicão U19 2+ goals
52%
Famalicão U19 3+ goals
25%
Feirense U19 1+ goals
69%
Feirense U19 2+ goals
33%
Feirense U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Famalicão U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Feirense U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicão U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicão U19 attack 2.17 + Feirense U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Feirense U19 attack 1.33 + Famalicão U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Famalicão U19 scores more
51%
level
24%
Feirense U19 scores more
26%

Famalicão U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Famalicão U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
53'
60'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famalicão U19 vs Feirense U19

Famalicão U19 beat Feirense U19 3-0 in League #1041 on March 8, 2025.

Goals: ? (24', 53', 60').

The match was played at Campo N 1 Academia FC Famalicão in Esmeriz.