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Falmouth Town vs Winchester City — League #56 2026

Falmouth Town
Falmouth Town
FT
5 – 6
HT: 4 – 1
Winchester City
Winchester City
3/7/2026League #56League #56 · Southern South - 34Brewers Green Lane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Falmouth Town39%
×Draw19%
Winchester City41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falmouth Town
2.33
Winchester City
2.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Falmouth Town
2.33
Winchester City
3.00

allows per match

Falmouth Town
1.78
Winchester City
2.33

finishing

Falmouth Town+0.00on par
Winchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falmouth Town ↓

Winchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Falmouth Town or draw
59%
Falmouth Town or Winchester City
81%
Draw or Winchester City
61%

Winning margin

Falmouth Town wins by 2+
22%
Winchester City wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Falmouth Town 1+ goals
90%
Falmouth Town 2+ goals
67%
Falmouth Town 3+ goals
41%
Winchester City 1+ goals
91%
Winchester City 2+ goals
69%
Winchester City 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Falmouth Town (draw refunded)
49%
Winchester City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falmouth Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Winchester City away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falmouth Town attack 2.33 + Winchester City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Winchester City attack 3.00 + Falmouth Town defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Falmouth Town scores more
39%
level
19%
Winchester City scores more
41%

Winchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Winchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Falmouth Town 5–6 Winchester City

Winchester City beat Falmouth Town 6-5 in League #56 on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Brewers Green Lane Stadium in Diss, Norfolk.