Falmouth Town vs Shaftesbury Town

Falmouth Town

PST

15:00

Shaftesbury Town

2/3/2026

League #56 · Southern South - 21Brewers Green Lane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Falmouth Town42%

×Draw20%

Shaftesbury Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falmouth TownExpected goals in this matchShaftesbury Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.06

Falmouth Town

2.17

Shaftesbury Town

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

2.33

1.78

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Falmouth Town

2.33

Shaftesbury Town

2.33

allows per match

Falmouth Town

1.78

Shaftesbury Town

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falmouth Town+0.00on par

Shaftesbury Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falmouth Town ↓

Shaftesbury Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Falmouth Town or draw

62%

Falmouth Town or Shaftesbury Town

80%

Draw or Shaftesbury Town

58%

Winning margin

Falmouth Town wins by 2+

24%

Shaftesbury Town wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Falmouth Town 1+ goals

89%

Falmouth Town 2+ goals

64%

Falmouth Town 3+ goals

36%

Shaftesbury Town 1+ goals

87%

Shaftesbury Town 2+ goals

61%

Shaftesbury Town 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Falmouth Town (draw refunded)

53%

Shaftesbury Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falmouth Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Shaftesbury Town away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falmouth Town attack 2.33 + Shaftesbury Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Shaftesbury Town attack 2.33 + Falmouth Town defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Falmouth Town scores more

42%

level

20%

Shaftesbury Town scores more

38%

Falmouth Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Falmouth Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff