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Falmouth Town vs Melksham Town — League #56 2026

Falmouth Town
Falmouth Town
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Melksham Town
Melksham Town
4/25/2026League #56League #56

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Falmouth Town52%
×Draw22%
Melksham Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falmouth Town
2.00
Melksham Town
1.39

Falmouth Town creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Falmouth Town
2.33
Melksham Town
1.00

allows per match

Falmouth Town
1.78
Melksham Town
1.67

finishing

Falmouth Town+0.00on par
Melksham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falmouth Town ↓

Melksham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Falmouth Town or draw
73%
Falmouth Town or Melksham Town
78%
Draw or Melksham Town
48%

Winning margin

Falmouth Town wins by 2+
30%
Melksham Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Falmouth Town 1+ goals
86%
Falmouth Town 2+ goals
59%
Falmouth Town 3+ goals
32%
Melksham Town 1+ goals
75%
Melksham Town 2+ goals
40%
Melksham Town 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Falmouth Town (draw refunded)
66%
Melksham Town (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falmouth Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Melksham Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falmouth Town attack 2.33 + Melksham Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Melksham Town attack 1.00 + Falmouth Town defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Falmouth Town scores more
52%
level
22%
Melksham Town scores more
27%

Falmouth Town at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Falmouth Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falmouth Town vs Melksham Town

Melksham Town beat Falmouth Town 2-0 in League #56 on April 25, 2026.