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Falmouth Town vs Bideford — League #56 2026

Falmouth Town
Falmouth Town
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Bideford
Bideford
2/24/2026League #56League #56

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Falmouth Town68%
×Draw15%
Bideford17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falmouth Town
3.17
Bideford
1.56

Falmouth Town creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Falmouth Town
2.33
Bideford
1.33

allows per match

Falmouth Town
1.78
Bideford
4.00

finishing

Falmouth Town+0.00on par
Bideford+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falmouth Town ↓

Bideford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Falmouth Town or draw
83%
Falmouth Town or Bideford
85%
Draw or Bideford
32%

Winning margin

Falmouth Town wins by 2+
49%
Bideford wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Falmouth Town 1+ goals
96%
Falmouth Town 2+ goals
82%
Falmouth Town 3+ goals
60%
Bideford 1+ goals
79%
Bideford 2+ goals
46%
Bideford 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Falmouth Town (draw refunded)
80%
Bideford (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falmouth Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Bideford away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falmouth Town attack 2.33 + Bideford defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Bideford attack 1.33 + Falmouth Town defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Falmouth Town scores more
68%
level
15%
Bideford scores more
17%

Falmouth Town at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Falmouth Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Falmouth Town 4–4 Bideford

Falmouth Town and Bideford drew 4-4 in League #56 on February 24, 2026.