Falkirk 4–0 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Falkirk

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stenhousemuir

L. Henderson 68'

R. MacIver 56', 31'

C. Morrison 25' (pen)

7/27/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Falkirk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Falkirk73%

×Draw17%

Stenhousemuir10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalkirkExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.71

Falkirk

2.29

Stenhousemuir

0.71

Falkirk creates 223% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.94

creates per match

0.71

0.72

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Falkirk

1.94

Stenhousemuir

0.71

allows per match

Falkirk

0.72

Stenhousemuir

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw

90%

Falkirk or Stenhousemuir

83%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

27%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+

49%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals

90%

Falkirk 2+ goals

66%

Falkirk 3+ goals

40%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

51%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

16%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)

88%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.94 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.29

Stenhousemuir attack 0.71 + Falkirk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Falkirk scores more

73%

level

17%

Stenhousemuir scores more

10%

Falkirk at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

K. Jacobs

23'

J. Berry

25'

C. MorrisonPenalty

31'

R. MacIver↳ L. Henderson

35'

39'

42'

56'

65'

A. Agyeman← G. Oliver

65'

E. Ross← C. Miller

65'

M. McKenna← C. Morrison

65'

E. O'Reilly← K. Bilham

65'

R. Meechan← R. Taylor

65'

N. Wedderburn← K. Jacobs

65'

C. O'Donnell← M. Aitken

68'

F. Yeats← C. Donaldson

68'

L. Henderson↳ B. Spencer

69'

C. O'Donnell

76'

A. Brown← M. Yates

77'

R. Shanley← R. MacIver

90+1'

K. Ewen

Falkirk

Stenhousemuir

1

4

18

3

14

▼

Bilham

16

▼

Jacobs

8

Berry

17

Anderson

12

▼

Taylor

9

▼

Aitken

10

▼

Yates

1

Hogarth

6

▼

Donaldson

5

⚽A

Henderson

26

Mackie

20

Adams

29

▼

Miller

8

A

Spencer

21

Tait

18

▼

Oliver

7

⚽

▼

Morrison

9

⚽2

▼

MacIver

Manager: J. McGlynn

65'▲A. Agyeman←▼G. Oliver

65'▲E. Ross←▼C. Miller

65'▲M. McKenna←▼C. Morrison

68'▲F. Yeats←▼C. Donaldson

77'▲R. Shanley←▼R. MacIver

Falkirk substitutes

11Agyeman23Ross14McKenna2Yeats19Shanley32Walker27Hayward3McCann35McCrone

Manager: G. Naysmith

65'▲E. O'Reilly←▼K. Bilham

65'▲R. Meechan←▼R. Taylor

65'▲N. Wedderburn←▼K. Jacobs

65'▲C. O'Donnell←▼M. Aitken

76'▲A. Brown←▼M. Yates

Stenhousemuir substitutes

7O'Reilly2Meechan6Wedderburn19O'Donnell11Brown34Lyle

Match Recap: Falkirk vs Stenhousemuir

Falkirk beat Stenhousemuir 4-0 in League Cup on July 27, 2024.

Goals: C. Morrison (25' pen), R. MacIver (31', 56'), L. Henderson (68').

The match was played at Falkirk Stadium in Falkirk.

Falkirk vs Stenhousemuir — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Falkirk vs Stenhousemuir