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Falkirk vs Formartine United — FA Cup 2019

Falkirk
Falkirk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Formartine United
Formartine United
11/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundFalkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Falkirk31%
×Draw23%
Formartine United46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkirk
1.40
Formartine United
1.76

Formartine United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Falkirk
1.43
Formartine United
2.38

allows per match

Falkirk
1.14
Formartine United
1.38

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par
Formartine United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Formartine United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw
54%
Falkirk or Formartine United
77%
Draw or Formartine United
69%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+
14%
Formartine United wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals
75%
Falkirk 2+ goals
41%
Falkirk 3+ goals
17%
Formartine United 1+ goals
83%
Formartine United 2+ goals
52%
Formartine United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)
40%
Formartine United (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Formartine United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.43 + Formartine United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Formartine United attack 2.38 + Falkirk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Falkirk scores more
31%
level
23%
Formartine United scores more
46%

Formartine United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Formartine United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Falkirk 3–0 Formartine United

Falkirk beat Formartine United 3-0 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Falkirk Community Stadium in Falkirk.