Falkirk 1–0 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Falkirk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dunfermline

B. Spencer 6'

3/8/2025

League #180 · Round 28Falkirk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Falkirk57%

×Draw28%

Dunfermline15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalkirkExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.57

Falkirk

1.39

Dunfermline

0.57

Falkirk creates 144% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

0.82

0.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Falkirk

1.78

Dunfermline

0.82

allows per match

Falkirk

0.33

Dunfermline

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw

85%

Falkirk or Dunfermline

72%

Draw or Dunfermline

43%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+

29%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals

75%

Falkirk 2+ goals

40%

Falkirk 3+ goals

16%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

43%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

11%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)

79%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.78 + Dunfermline defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dunfermline attack 0.82 + Falkirk defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Falkirk scores more

57%

level

28%

Dunfermline scores more

15%

Falkirk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

B. Spencer↳ B. Stewart

19'

S. Mackie

42'

K. Ngwenya← A. Raymond

51'

E. Yeboah

56'

C. Young← A. Stevens

56'

O. Taylor-Clarke← E. Otoo

69'

G. Oliver← B. Stewart

69'

A. Nesbitt← S. Arfield

75'

L. Henderson

77'

F. Yeats← L. Henderson

77'

M. Thomson← E. Ross

89'

A. Agyeman← C. Miller

Falkirk

Dunfermline

21

Oluwayemi

4

Benedictu

2

Comrie

6

▼

Otoo

13

▼

48

35

20

11

14

▼

34

1

6

4

5

▼

Henderson

26

Mackie

20

Adams

37

▼

Arfield

29

▼

Miller

23

▼

Ross

8

⚽

Spencer

16

A

▼

Stewart

Manager: J. McGlynn

69'▲G. Oliver←▼B. Stewart

69'▲A. Nesbitt←▼S. Arfield

77'▲F. Yeats←▼L. Henderson

77'▲M. Thomson←▼E. Ross

89'▲A. Agyeman←▼C. Miller

Falkirk substitutes

18Oliver10Nesbitt2Yeats7Thomson11Agyeman22Graham31Munro9MacIver3McCann

Manager: M. Tidser

42'▲K. Ngwenya←▼A. Raymond

56'▲C. Young←▼A. Stevens

56'▲O. Taylor-Clarke←▼E. Otoo

Dunfermline substitutes

3Ngwenya17Young45Taylor-Clarke1Mehmet8Chalmers37Hampson5Hamilton16Fogarty19Wotherspoon