Falkirk 5–1 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Falkirk

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cove Rangers

A. Agyeman 90+2'

D. Tait 62'

R. MacIver 50'

C. Morrison 25'

C. Donaldson 13'

J. Kerr 34'

4/6/2024

League #183 · Round 32Falkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Falkirk73%

×Draw16%

Cove Rangers11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalkirkExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.92

Falkirk

2.58

Cove Rangers

0.92

Falkirk creates 180% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

3.29

creates per match

1.13

0.71

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Falkirk

3.29

Cove Rangers

1.13

allows per match

Falkirk

0.71

Cove Rangers

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw

89%

Falkirk or Cove Rangers

84%

Draw or Cove Rangers

27%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+

51%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals

92%

Falkirk 2+ goals

72%

Falkirk 3+ goals

47%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

60%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

23%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)

86%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 3.29 + Cove Rangers defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.58

Cove Rangers attack 1.13 + Falkirk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Falkirk scores more

73%

level

16%

Cove Rangers scores more

11%

Falkirk at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

C. Donaldson↳ C. Miller

25'

C. Morrison↳ B. Spencer

34'

J. Kerr↳ C. Scully

50'

R. MacIver↳ C. Miller

62'

D. Tait↳ B. Spencer

67'

S. McGinn← B. Spencer

67'

R. Shanley← R. MacIver

67'

G. Oliver← A. Nesbitt

69'

P. McGowan← J. Kerr

72'

E. Ross← C. Miller

72'

A. Agyeman← C. Morrison

90'

F. Fyvie

90+2'

A. Agyeman↳ D. Tait

Falkirk

Cove

1

Suman

26

Reynolds

3

Doyle

17

⚽

▼

2

15

6

24

4

A

5

11

31

6

⚽

Donaldson

26

Mackie

3

McCann

10

▼

Nesbitt

29

A

▼

Miller

8

A

▼

Spencer

15

⚽A

Tait

14

Yeats

7

⚽

▼

Morrison

17

⚽

▼

MacIver

Manager: J. McGlynn

67'▲S. McGinn←▼B. Spencer

67'▲R. Shanley←▼R. MacIver

67'▲G. Oliver←▼A. Nesbitt

72'▲E. Ross←▼C. Miller

72'▲A. Agyeman←▼C. Morrison

Falkirk substitutes

4McGinn19Shanley18Oliver23Ross11Agyeman5Henderson20Bisland1Long

Manager: P. Hartley

69'▲P. McGowan←▼J. Kerr

Cove Rangers substitutes

7McGowan21Demus27Stewart10Burrell