Falkirk 5–1 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Falkirk

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Albion Rovers

7/13/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Falkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Falkirk74%

×Draw16%

Albion Rovers9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalkirkExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.70

Falkirk

2.36

Albion Rovers

0.70

Falkirk creates 237% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.94

creates per match

0.67

0.72

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Falkirk

1.94

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Falkirk

0.72

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Albion Rovers →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw

91%

Falkirk or Albion Rovers

84%

Draw or Albion Rovers

26%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+

51%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals

90%

Falkirk 2+ goals

68%

Falkirk 3+ goals

41%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

50%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

16%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)

89%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.94 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.36

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Falkirk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Falkirk scores more

74%

level

16%

Albion Rovers scores more

Falkirk at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff