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Falkenbergs FF vs Mjallby AIF — Allsvenskan 2026

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
12/6/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 30Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Falkenbergs FF27%
×Draw26%
Mjallby AIF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.06
Mjallby AIF
1.47

Mjallby AIF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 97 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.00
Mjallby AIF
1.33

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.60
Mjallby AIF
1.11

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
53%
Falkenbergs FF or Mjallby AIF
74%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
73%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
10%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
65%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
29%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
9%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
77%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
43%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
37%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.00 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
27%
level
26%
Mjallby AIF scores more
47%

Mjallby AIF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Falkenbergs FF 2–3 Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Falkenbergs FF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.