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Falkenbergs FF vs IK Frej — Superettan 2018

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IK Frej
IK Frej
4/22/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Falcon Alkoholfri Arena (Falkenberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Falkenbergs FF49%
×Draw23%
IK Frej28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.77
IK Frej
1.28

Falkenbergs FF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.70
IK Frej
1.30

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.26
IK Frej
1.83

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
72%
Falkenbergs FF or IK Frej
77%
Draw or IK Frej
51%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
27%
IK Frej wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
83%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
53%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
26%
IK Frej 1+ goals
72%
IK Frej 2+ goals
37%
IK Frej 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
64%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.70 + IK Frej defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

IK Frej attack 1.30 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
49%
level
23%
IK Frej scores more
28%

Falkenbergs FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falkenbergs FF vs IK Frej

Falkenbergs FF beat IK Frej 3-1 in Superettan on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena (Falkenberg).