Falkenbergs FF 0–2 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hammarby FF

8/26/2019

Allsvenskan · Round 21Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Falkenbergs FF29%

×Draw25%

Hammarby FF46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.52

Falkenbergs FF

1.16

Hammarby FF

1.52

Hammarby FF creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 127 away

1.00

creates per match

1.44

1.60

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.00

Hammarby FF

1.44

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.60

Hammarby FF

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

54%

Falkenbergs FF or Hammarby FF

75%

Draw or Hammarby FF

71%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

12%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

69%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

32%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

11%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

78%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

45%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

39%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.00 + Hammarby FF defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hammarby FF attack 1.44 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

29%

level

25%

Hammarby FF scores more

46%

Hammarby FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff