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Falcons vs Ulaanbaatar City — Premier League 2020

Falcons
Falcons
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
4/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Falcons51%
×Draw20%
Ulaanbaatar City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcons
2.25
Ulaanbaatar City
1.66

Falcons creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 55 away

creates per match

Falcons
2.74
Ulaanbaatar City
2.31

allows per match

Falcons
1.00
Ulaanbaatar City
1.76

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Falcons or draw
71%
Falcons or Ulaanbaatar City
80%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar City
49%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+
31%
Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals
89%
Falcons 2+ goals
65%
Falcons 3+ goals
39%
Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
81%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
49%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)
64%
Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.00 · 68 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 2.74 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Falcons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Falcons scores more
51%
level
20%
Ulaanbaatar City scores more
29%

Falcons at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Falcons 3–2 Ulaanbaatar City

Falcons beat Ulaanbaatar City 3-2 in Premier League on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.