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Falcons vs Sumida Gepro — Premier League 2020

Falcons
Falcons
FT
6 – 0
Sumida Gepro
Sumida Gepro
9/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Falcons91%
×Draw6%
Sumida Gepro3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcons
3.93
Sumida Gepro
0.61

Falcons creates 544% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 9 away

creates per match

Falcons
2.74
Sumida Gepro
0.22

allows per match

Falcons
1.00
Sumida Gepro
5.11

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par
Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

Sumida Gepro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Falcons or draw
97%
Falcons or Sumida Gepro
94%
Draw or Sumida Gepro
9%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+
78%
Sumida Gepro wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals
98%
Falcons 2+ goals
89%
Falcons 3+ goals
72%
Sumida Gepro 1+ goals
46%
Sumida Gepro 2+ goals
13%
Sumida Gepro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)
97%
Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.00 · 68 matches

Sumida Gepro away — creates 0.22, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 2.74 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.93

Sumida Gepro attack 0.22 + Falcons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Falcons scores more
91%
level
6%
Sumida Gepro scores more
3%

Falcons at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Falcons 6–0 Sumida Gepro

Falcons beat Sumida Gepro 6-0 in Premier League on September 8, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.