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Falcons vs PSV Wellingara — GFA League 2020

Falcons
Falcons
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
Ballack 79'
A. Saho 63'
2/3/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Falcons40%
×Draw34%
PSV Wellingara26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcons
0.98
PSV Wellingara
0.73

Falcons creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Falcons
1.03
PSV Wellingara
0.67

allows per match

Falcons
0.78
PSV Wellingara
0.93

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par
PSV Wellingara+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

PSV Wellingara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Falcons or draw
74%
Falcons or PSV Wellingara
66%
Draw or PSV Wellingara
60%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+
15%
PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals
62%
Falcons 2+ goals
26%
Falcons 3+ goals
8%
PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
52%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
17%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)
60%
PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

PSV Wellingara away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 1.03 + PSV Wellingara defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

PSV Wellingara attack 0.67 + Falcons defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Falcons scores more
40%
level
34%
PSV Wellingara scores more
26%

Falcons at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
A. Saho
79'
Ballack

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falcons vs PSV Wellingara

Falcons and PSV Wellingara drew 1-1 in GFA League on February 3, 2023.

Goals: A. Saho (63'), Ballack (79').