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Falcons vs GPA — GFA League 2020

Falcons
Falcons
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GPA
GPA
1/10/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Falcons31%
×Draw36%
GPA33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcons
0.77
GPA
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Falcons
0.60
GPA
0.89

allows per match

Falcons
0.73
GPA
0.93

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par
GPA+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

GPA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Falcons or draw
67%
Falcons or GPA
64%
Draw or GPA
69%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+
10%
GPA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals
54%
Falcons 2+ goals
18%
Falcons 3+ goals
4%
GPA 1+ goals
56%
GPA 2+ goals
19%
GPA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)
48%
GPA (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

GPA away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 0.60 + GPA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

GPA attack 0.89 + Falcons defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Falcons scores more
31%
level
36%
GPA scores more
33%

GPA at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Falcons 0 – 2 GPA

GPA beat Falcons 2-0 in GFA League on January 10, 2026.